With just three days left for the first phase of voting in Bihar Assembly elections, the campaign is in full swing. The promotion noise for the 121 seats in the first phase will quiet down by Tuesday. The elections scheduled for November 6 will be a litmus test for Lalu Prasad Yadav's political heirs, Tejashwi and Tej Pratap Yadav, as well as BJP's deputy chief ministers.
BJP's prominent leaders in Bihar, Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, will face their trials in the first phase. Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary is testing his fate from the Tarapur legislative seat, while his counterpart Vijay Kumar Sinha is standing once again from the Lakhisarai seat.
Lalu Prasad Yadav's sons, Tejashwi and Tej Pratap Yadav, are also on for their trials in the first phase. Tejashwi Yadav is stepping on the battlefield aiming for a hat-trick win from the Raghopur seat, whereas Tej Pratap is trying his luck from the Mahua seat. While Tejashwi represents RJD, Tej Pratap is contending from his party.
Samrat Chaudhary Faces His Moment of Reckoning
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Samrat Chaudhary is gearing up for elections from his home district, the Tarapur seat, for the very first time. This seat has a familial legacy, represented by Samrat Chaudhary's father, Shakuni Chaudhary, for 23 years and by his mother, Parvati Devi, for 3 years. Now it's on Samrat Chaudhary to continue this legacy. However, the seat has long been a stronghold of the United Janata Dal (JDU).
In the 2015 elections, the JDU candidate Mewa Lal Chaudhary won from here and again in 2020. Following his demise, a by-election was won by JDU's Rajiv Kumar Singh. This Assembly seat hadn't been with the BJP for the last 30 years. This time, JDU has ceded this seat to BJP for Samrat Chaudhary. However, his battle is far from easy.
A total of 13 candidates are in the running against Samrat Chaudhary, but the primary contest is against RJD's Arun Kumar Sahu and Jan Suraj Party's Santosh Singh. Even parties like BSP are in the race. If Samrat Chaudhary wins, it would elevate his political stature; a loss, though, could diminish his standing. Arun Kumar Sahu of RJD is encroaching upon BJP's traditional votes, heightening Samrat Chaudhary's challenges significantly.
Can Vijay Kumar Sinha Secure Victory?
The Lakhisarai seat, renowned for its Bhumihar majority, sees BJP heavyweight and Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha in the fray. He has consistently won from Lakhisarai but faces a tougher battle this time. The effect of anti-incumbency is palpable, requiring significant effort to overcome.
Vijay Kumar Sinha, hoping for a fourth consecutive victory, is contending against Congress candidate Amresh Kumar Aneesh from Barhiya under the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) banner. All of Sinha's opponents have united against him, lending their support to Congress.
Last time, former MLA Fulaina Singh and Sujit Kumar contested independently, thwarting Amresh Kumar's chances with 10,938 and 11,570 votes, respectively. Now, Fulaina Singh and Sujit Kumar back Amresh Kumar Aneesh, complicating Vijay Kumar Sinha's prospects. This time, the battle is intense, and if he triumphs, Vijay Sinha's stature within the party could rise further.
Will Tejashwi Yadav Achieve a Hat-Trick?
Tejashwi Yadav's fate will be determined in the first phase itself. Having represented the Raghopur seat twice already, he is vying for a third consecutive win. In past elections, no opponent has come close to his margin of victory.
This time, he stands as the Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial candidate, with 19 challengers. BJP's Satish Kumar Yadav has thrown his hat into the ring, alongside Jansuraj Party's Chanchal Kumar and brother Tej Pratap's party Jan Shakti Janata Dal’s Prem Kumar.
The 2020 elections saw a direct contest between RJD and BJP. Tejashwi secured 97,404 votes, while BJP's Satish Kumar Yadav garnered 59,230, both representing the Yadav community. With about 35% of the Yadav population being decisive, this plays a crucial role in Raghopur.
Beyond the Yadavs, Raghopur has about 18% Dalit voters, a similar number of Rajput voters, 3% Brahmin, and an equal percentage of Muslims. RJD has dominated Raghopur since 1998, except in 2010, when they faced defeat. On this traditional Lalu family seat, Tejashwi is challenged not only by BJP but also by his brother's party.
Is Tej Pratap Stuck in Mahua?
Trying his political luck from Mahua in Vaishali, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s elder son, Tej Pratap Yadav, is navigating a rocky path. Disconnected from both party and family, he's tangled in Mahua's political web. Tej Pratap had initiated his political journey from Mahua in 2015 but moved to Hasanpur in 2020 and has now returned.
Representing his party the Jan Shakti Janata Dal, Tej Pratap is contending against RJD's Mukesh Raushan and NDA's LJP (Ram Vilas) candidate Sanjay Singh. In the midst of fierce battles from both major alliances, Mahua finds itself in turmoil due to scattered votes, a predicament that adds to Tej Pratap's woes, given Lalu's family backing Mukesh Raushan. Thus, Tej Pratap faces an uphill battle for victory in Mahua this time.
