As the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections approaches, voting for eight seats in Uttar Pradesh including Rampur and Moradabad is scheduled for April 19, with the nomination process now complete. Both these seats are witnessing political turmoil within the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP). ST Hasan initially filed his nomination for the SP in Moradabad. After Hasan's filing, Ruchi Veera also submitted her nomination under SP's banner. Meanwhile, in Rampur, the SP's district unit announced a boycott of the elections based on a letter from Azam Khan, only to have their official candidate, Imam Mohibullah from Delhi's Parliament Street mosque, follow suit with the submission of his nomination, later joined by Asim Raza.
ST Hasan is ready to withdraw his candidacy, while Asim Raza's nomination was canceled after scrutiny. The candidacy conflict may be resolved, but the SP's internal strife has come to light. The SP, now in active mode, has made space for the imprisoned Azam Khan in their list of star campaigners. Discussions are also underway about Shivpal Yadav's visit to Sitapur jail to appease Azam. Including Azam in the list of campaigners is seen as an attempt to assure his supporters that the party has not abandoned him. Now, questions arise regarding the kind of political power Azam Khan wields that leaves Akhilesh Yadav appearing helpless.
Senior Lucknow journalist Pramod Goswami commented that Azam Khan has always been a leader within the SP who could never be easily controlled. Azam's strength lies in his oratory skills and ability to unite the Muslim community – a vote base crucial to the Muslim-Yadav rooted party. During an election season, no party leader, not even Akhilesh, would want any member or worker disgruntled. The hold Azam has over the Muslim vote might not be as strong as it once was, but due to the current political climate, Akhilesh is seen making all efforts to reconcile.
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari remarked that in a democracy, the ultimate power is the vote, and Azam indeed holds influence over the Muslim vote bank. With pan-UP acceptance, Azam is distinguished among the SP's Muslim leadership. Despite many leaders coming and going from the SP, none have maintained influence within the community like Azam. After facing over a hundred lawsuits and jail time since the BJP came into power, Azam has consistently portrayed himself as a victim to his people. With the BSP now adopting aggressive Muslim politics, the SP is taking no risks.
Post-government actions against leaders such as Azam Khan and his family along with Irfan Solanki have led to murmurs of dissatisfaction with the SP within the Muslim community. Some argue that the SP has failed to protest sufficiently against actions targeting Muslim leaders, essentially leaving them to fend for themselves. Following the defeats in the Rampur and Azamgarh by-elections, Akhilesh Yadav has been visibly in damage control mode.
The Weight of the Muslim Vote
The Muslim community accounts for nearly 20% of the total population in Uttar Pradesh. Out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state, about 30 have a significant Muslim demographic. Azam Khan’s home constituency, Rampur, along with Saharanpur, Meerut, Kairana, Bijnor, Amroha, Muzaffarnagar, Sambhal, Nagina, Baraich, Bareilly, and Shravasti are among the dozen seats where the Muslim population exceeds 30%. Eastern Uttar Pradesh's constituencies like Mau and Azamgarh are included in the list, where Muslim voters play a decisive role. The SP candidate in the Azamgarh by-election faced defeat by a margin of nearly eight thousand votes, with the BSP's Guddu Jamali securing third place with over two and a half lakh votes.
