In the midst of the 2012 Uttar Pradesh elections, Rahul Gandhi faced the press. Asked if the Congress could make a comeback, he abruptly stood up, proclaiming Congress would rise as he just did. Fast forward 12 years, and the Congress has yet to see such resurgence, faltering in both state and Lok Sabha elections. Initiating his political journey from Amethi in 2004, it was only in 2019 that Amethi didn’t deliver a victory for Rahul. Now, abandoning Amethi, he has embraced Raebareli, his mother Sonia Gandhi's relinquished seat. Yet the question lingers: Is Raebareli genuinely a safe bet for Rahul Gandhi in Uttar Pradesh, or will it prove equally challenging?
An announcement made on May 3 put an end to the month-long political suspense around Amethi and Raebareli. The Congress has named Rahul Gandhi as their candidate from Raebareli, while Kishori Lal Sharma has been trusted with Amethi. A chartered plane descended on the airstrip of Fursatganj in Raebareli, depositing Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, and several other Congress dignitaries. Following this, Rahul Gandhi officially filed his nomination from Raebareli, handing over Amethi to Kishori Lal Sharma, a long-time family associate and Sonia Gandhi's former representative.
Priyanka States: Rahul Will Win from Both Seats
Priyanka Gandhi voiced her confidence saying she’s elated for her brother who is contesting from Raebareli, firmly believing he will secure victories at both Raebareli and Wayanad. On the other hand, BJP speculates Rahul shifted his battleground to Raebareli fearing another defeat at the hands of Smriti Irani in Amethi.
Rahul Gandhi Reflects on His Nomination
Rahul Gandhi expressed how emotionally charged the moment of nomination in Raebareli was for him. He felt the legacy of the family’s battleground was entrusted to him with faith. Amply clear is their perception of both Amethi and Raebareli as integral parts of their familial fabric. It’s worth noting that even during the intense Modi wave of 2014, Raebareli stood by Congress. Moreover, in the 2019 election, amidst Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats, Congress was victorious only in Raebareli. In its 72-year history, 66 of those years saw Congress members as MPs. The Gandhi family itself has seen seven members run for MP from here, with five successes throughout the 20 elections held so far. For 20 years, Raebareli has consistently elected Sonia Gandhi as its MP.
The 17 Percent Factor Explained
The crucial question arises: why is BJP so confident that Raebareli, much like Amethi, could slip away from Congress? Although Priyanka Gandhi, citing her mother, writes of the family feeling complete in Raebareli, has the steadfast vote bank begun to fracture?
Understanding the Vote Share Dynamics...
In 2009, Sonia Gandhi received 72.23% of the votes, while BJP stood at a mere 3.82%, marking a staggering difference of 68.41%. Fast forward to 2014, Sonia Gandhi garnered 63.80% and BJP climbed to 21.05%. The gap had significantly narrowed to 42.75%. The 2019 elections saw Sonia Gandhi with 55.78% and BJP with 38.35%, bringing the margin of victory to a slim 17.43%. It’s now the fourth consecutive time Raebareli has witnessed BJP lose by this closer margin.
Congress’s Take on Rahul Gandhi Contesting from Raebareli
Why has Rahul Gandhi chosen to forgo Amethi for Raebareli? Congress elucidates that Raebareli isn't just the seat of Sonia Gandhi; it has been Indira Gandhi's too. Emphasizing not heritage but duty and responsibility, the stage is set for Rahul Gandhi to rise to the occasion in Raebareli. However, with three out of the five assembly seats within the Raebareli Lok Sabha constituency being lost by Congress in terms of deposits, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The Political Equation of Raebareli
In Raebareli’s Lok Sabha constituency, there are five assembly seats. BJP's Aditi Singh represents the city seat while the remaining four are held by Samajwadi Party (SP) members. The SP's control of the assembly could be pivotal for Rahul Gandhi's chances of victory, given their ability to transfer votes effectively.
The Political Lineage of the Gandhi Family in Raebareli-Amethi
Feroze Gandhi initiated the family's parliamentary journey from Raebareli with Sanjay Gandhi later debuting from Amethi. The constituency has long been a bastion of the Gandhi family, with 31 out of 40 years of representation. Surprisingly, Rahul Gandhi has relinquished Amethi, a seat closely linked to both his personal and the family’s political legacy.
